TWO SCORES, TWO QUESTIONS
Every metro gets two scores:
- Stress Score (0-100) — How hard is it to buy here right now? Measures current affordability pain.
- Crash Risk Score (0-100) — How vulnerable to a price correction? Measures pre-downturn signals.
A market can be high stress / low risk (expensive but stable) or low stress / high risk (affordable but overbuilt). The two together give the complete picture.
STRESS SCORE — 7 INPUTS
Weighted composite, each normalized to 0-100:
| Input | Weight |
|---|---|
| Payment-to-Income | 25% |
| Price Cuts | 20% |
| Days on Market | 15% |
| Inventory Change (YoY) | 15% |
| Price Growth (YoY) | 10% |
| Foreclosure Rate | 10% |
| Mortgage Rate | 5% |
Payment-to-Income is the largest driver — it directly measures what buyers experience.
Example
Austin, TX (46) — 35.9% payment-to-income, inventory rising +5% YoY, 9.4% price cuts.
Beaumont, TX (10) — under 20% payment-to-income, stable inventory, minimal cuts.
Same state, same rates. The difference is local affordability.
CRASH RISK — 6 INPUTS
Signals that historically precede housing downturns:
| Input | Weight |
|---|---|
| Inventory Surge (YoY) | 25% |
| Price Cuts | 22% |
| Days on Market | 18% |
| Unemployment | 15% |
| Price Growth (YoY) | 13% |
| New Listings Surge | 7% |
SCORE LEVELS
0–25SAFE
26–50WATCH
51–75STRESS
76+DANGER
DATA SOURCES
| Source | Data |
|---|---|
| FRED | Rates, income, foreclosures, sentiment, starts, permits |
| Zillow | Home values, rent, inventory, new listings |
| Redfin | Price cuts %, days on market |
| BLS | State unemployment rates |
| Freddie Mac | 30-year fixed rate |
| InsideAirbnb | STR occupancy, revenue, listings (27 metros) |
| Realtor.com | Active/pending/new listings, prices (189 metros) |
All sources are free and publicly available.
LIMITATIONS
- Scores are directional, not predictions. High crash risk does not guarantee a crash.
- Metro-level data masks neighborhood variation.
- Data sources update at different frequencies (daily to monthly).
- Fixed weights may not match every buyer's priorities.
- Airbnb occupancy is estimated from listing data, not booking data.